Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Inventory plunge slows as median price continues rising and sale tip downward

The drain of homes available for purchase in Orlando decreased to its slowest pace this year, with October showing just 2.3 percent fewer homes on the market than the same month in 2017. (May has shown the greatest discrepancy so far for 2018, with 17 percent less inventory than in May 2017.)

Meanwhile, Orlando’s median home price continued on its upward march while sales dipped a fraction.

According to ORRA President Lou Nimkoff, Brio Real Estate Services LLC, these are all trends that can be expected into 2019 along with rising interest rates. “Orlando’s housing market is likely to experience increases in median price and decreases in sales during the months ahead, albeit in small increments. The particular bright side for buyers is that any increase we see in inventory happily means more options for finding the right home.” 

Median Price

The overall median price of Orlando homes (all types combined) sold in October is $228,750, which is 4.5 percent above the October 2017 median price of $219,000 and 1.8 percent below the September 2018 median price of $233,000. 

Year-over-year increases in median price have been recorded for the past 88 consecutive months; as of October 2018, the overall median price is 98.1 percent higher than it was back in July 2011.

The median price for single-family homes that changed hands in October increased 4.6 percent over October 2017 and is now $249,900. The median price for condos increased 15.2 percent to $127,000.

The Orlando housing affordability index for October is 126.91 percent, down from 127.13 percent last month. (An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.)

The first-time homebuyers affordability index decreased to 90.25, from 90.41 percent last month.

Sales and Inventory

Members of ORRA participated in 2,910 sales of all home types combined in October, which is 0.4 percent less than the 2,921 sales in October 2017 and 4.8 percent more than the 2,776 sales in September 2018.

Sales of single-family homes (2,219) in October 2018 decreased by 1.3 percent compared to October 2017, while condo sales (399) increased 9.0 percent year over year.

Sales of distressed homes (foreclosures and short sales) reached 124 in October and are 21.0 percent less than the 157 distressed sales in October 2017. Distressed sales made up just 4.3 percent of all Orlando-area transactions last month.

The overall inventory of homes that were available for purchase in October (8,272) represents a decrease of 2.3 percent when compared to October 2017, and a 2.2 percent increase compared to last month. There were 2.3 percent fewer single-family homes and 6.9 percent more condos, year over year.

Current inventory combined with the current pace of sales created a 2.84-month supply of homes in Orlando for October. There was a 2.9-month supply in September 2018 and a 2.9-month supply in October 2017.

The average interest rate paid by Orlando homebuyers in October was 4.85, up from 4.66 percent the month prior.

Homes that closed in October took an average of 52 days to move from listing to pending and took an average of 88 days from listing to closing.

Pending sales in October are down 19.7 percent compared to October of last year and are down 5.0 percent compared to last month.

MSA Numbers

Sales of existing homes within the entire Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties) in October were down by 1.4 percent when compared to October of 2017. Year to date, MSA sales are down by 2.2 percent.

Each individual county’s sales comparisons are as follows:

*Lake: 9.9 percent below October 2017;
*Orange: 2.7 percent below October 2017;
*Osceola: 4.4 percent above October 2017; and
*Seminole: 4.6 percent above October 2017.

This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association and the My Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service. Neither the association nor MFRMLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or MFRMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Due to late closings, an adjustment is necessary to record those closings posted after our reporting date.

ORRA REALTOR® sales represent sales involving Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association members, who are primarily – but not exclusively - located in Orange and Seminole counties. Note that statistics released each month may be revised in the future as new data is received. 

Orlando MSA numbers reflect sales of homes located in Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake counties by members of any REALTOR® association, not just members of ORRA.

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Mike Dudley Mike Dudley
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